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Issued: 1125, Thursday, July 29, 2010

TODAY: PATCHY DRIZZLE, BRIGHTER SPELLS
TONIGHT: CLOUDY, SOME DRIZZLE
TOMORROW: SOME BRIGHTNESS, RAIN LATER
DAYS 2-5: RAIN THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
DAYS 6-10: CHANGEABLE

SUMMARY

Some brighter spells today - otherwise mostly cloudy - with the chance some patches of light rain or drizzle. Cloudy tonight with a little drizzle possible. Moderate or light N to NW’ly winds throughout.

Friday bright at times with mainly light winds. Mostly dry in Shetland, but rain edging into Orkney later.

Cloudy with outbreaks of rain on Saturday. Misty at times with a light E’ly wind. Sunday often cloudy with showers and a NW’ly breeze developing. Drier and brighter with light winds on Monday.

The rest of next week perhaps changeable, with showers or longer spells of rain and moderate or fresh W to NW’ly winds. 

GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC

With an area of low pressure over southern Scandinavia - and an anticyclone slow-moving to the southwest of the British Isles - a moist NW’ly airflow covers northeast Scotland. Little change is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Later on Friday another shallow depression - drifting east to the south of Iceland – will push an occluded front northeast over Scotland. This is expected to be slow-moving near Orkney on Saturday, as the filling low tracks east just to the south. A NW’ly airflow - expected to develop on Sunday as pressure builds to the west – will ease on Monday, as a ridge swings east over northern Scotland.

The present prognosis is for an anticyclone to remain slow-moving to the west of the British Isles for much of next week, bringing a W to NW’ly airflow. Fronts, brushing around the high, may well affect the Northern Isles from time to time.

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium. Temperatures ranging from a high of 14° to 16° Celsius, down to a low of about 11° Celsius.

THURSDAY 29TH: Rather cloudy, with the chance of some patches of light rain or drizzle. However, it will tend to become drier and brighter by the afternoon with the chance of a few sunny spells, the best of these most likely across Shetland. Cloudy this evening and overnight, with a little mainly light drizzle possible. N to NW’ly winds remaining F2-4 throughout.

Sea state – Mostly moderate or slight, with a 1 to 2 metre NW’ly wind-swell. To the east of Shetland and Orkney moderate, with a 2 metre N to NW’ly wind-swell.

FRIDAY 30TH: After a rather grey start, the cloud will thin and break during the morning to give some sunny spells. A F2-4 NW’ly breeze falling light and variable. During the afternoon cloud will thicken once more, with Orkney seeing some rain - accompanied by misty conditions - spreading from the southwest later, as a light F2-3 SE’ly wind develops. Shetland remaining mainly dry but cloudy overnight, a light to moderate SE’ly wind perhaps bringing low cloud and mist on to eastern coasts and hills.

Sea state – Overnight becoming mainly slight, with a 1 metre NW’ly wind-swell. During the evening becoming SE’ly. 

SATURDAY 31ST: By morning, outbreaks of rain are expected to have extended north across Shetland, although it is possible the North Isles will remain mostly dry. Misty at times, especially over the hills and – with a F3-4 E’ly wind - down the east side.

Sea state – Mainly slight, with a 1 metre E to NE’ly wind-swell around Shetland and slight or moderate south of Fair Isle, with a 1 to 2 metre W or NW’ly wind-swell. During the evening becoming generally slight or moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre N’ly wind-swell.

10-DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low. Temperatures ranging from a daytime high of 13° to 16° Celsius down to an overnight low of about 10° Celsius.

SUNDAY 1ST: Rather cloudy at times, with showers or longer periods of rain. Mainly moderate NW’ly winds, but increasing fresh at times around the north of Shetland.

Sea state – Slight or moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre N’ly wind-swell later becoming NW’ly. Around the north of Shetland increasing moderate, with a 2 metre NW’ly wind-swell.

MONDAY 2ND: A mainly dry and bright day, with some sunny or clear spells. Moderate NW’ly winds backing light W’ly and later SW’ly as cloud thickens, bringing the chance of overnight rain or drizzle.

TUESDAY 3RD – SUNDAY 7TH: Changeable, with showers or longer spells of rain and moderate or fresh W to NW’ly winds.