TODAY: DRY AND BRIGHT
TONIGHT: MISTY
TOMORROW: DRY BUT CLOUDY
DAYS 2-5: MOSTLY DRY, FRESHENING SE WIND
DAYS 6-10: SOME RAIN

SUMMARY

A large area of high pressure covers the British Isles, North Sea and southern Norwegian Sea.

During the weekend - as the high becomes centred over  southern Scandinavia - a SE’ly airflow will strengthen, as low pressure in the Atlantic edges closer.

With a large anticyclone persisting over Scandinavia and low pressure in the Atlantic slipping southeast towards southwest England, a strong SE’ly airflow – its origin probably somewhere in Asia - is expected to continue through the first half of next week.

With the high forecast to extend into the Norwegian Sea for a time, an easing SE’ly airflow should back E or NE’ly later next week. By the end of the Outlook Period - with high pressure predicted to recede east and a depression develop near Iceland - we may see a freshening SW’ly airflow.

GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC

A large area of high pressure lies across the British Isles, North Sea and southern Norwegian Sea. With the main centre to the north, a light SE to E’ly airflow covers Shetland. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours.

During the weekend - as the high drifts into southern Scandinavia - a SE’ly airflow will freshen, as low pressure in the Atlantic edges closer.

By early next week, the SE’ly airflow will be strengthening further, as fronts – pushed east by the depression – become stalled over western Scotland, as high pressure holds on to the east.

With the latest prognosis suggesting the Scandinavian high will act as a block to the Atlantic depression, a strong mainly dry SE’ly airflow looks set to continue until the middle of next week. Thereafter, with the high predicted to transfer into the Norwegian Sea, we may see an easing SE’ly airflow backing E or NE’ly in direction.

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Weather type – high/medium. Timing – medium/high.

Temperatures today ranging from a high of 14° to 16° Celsius down to a low of about 10° Celsius tonight. On Saturday and Sunday, temperatures in the daily range 13° or 14° Celsius down to about 9° Celsius.

FRIDAY 3rd: Another dry day across the Northern Isles. Rather cloudy in Orkney, with a little sunshine. Shetland brighter with more sunshine. F3-4 SE’ly winds, slowly increasing F5 across Orkney by evening. Tonight staying dry though rather cloudy, more so over Orkney. F4 SE’ly winds for Shetland, F5 at times over Orkney.

Sea state – In most Shetland waters remaining slight, with a 1 metre E’ly wind-swell. To the west and around Fair Isle and Orkney, slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

SATURDAY 4th: Mostly dry and bright with some sunny or clear spells. SE’ly winds freshening F5 and occasionally F5-6 across Orkney.

Sea state – In eastern Shetland waters becoming slight to moderate, with a 1 to 2 metre SE’ly wind swell. To the west becoming moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre SE’ly wind-swell. Around Fair Isle and Orkney becoming rough, with a 3 metre SE’ly wind-swell by evening.

SUNDAY 5th: Rather cloudy, with the best of any brighter periods – and perhaps a few sunny or clear spells - in the west, sheltered from a F5-6 SE’ly wind freshening F6-7 by evening.

Sea state – Mostly rough, with a 3 to 4 metre SE’ly wind-swell. Moderate to the northeast of Shetland, with a 2 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

10-DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium. Timing – medium/low.

Temperatures in the daily range 13° to 15° Celsius down to about 9° Celsius.

MONDAY 6th: Mainly dry though cloudy, with a strong SE’ly wind. Around Orkney and in Fair Isle waters, winds may touch gale-force locally.

Sea state – Rough or very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre SE’ly wind-swell.

TUESDAY 7th: Mainly dry though cloudy, with some mist and fog affecting hills and coasts. A strong to near-gale SE’ly wind continuing.

WEDNESDAY 8th – MONDAY 13th: Fresh to strong SE’ly winds probably easing and backing E or NE’ly, and possibly falling light later. Dry and bright at first, but rain is possible by the weekend, as SW’ly winds freshen.