WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ORKNEY
Wednesday, May 16, at 9.37am

HEADLINES

TODAY: BRIGHT, SOME SHOWERS, COOL

TONIGHT: SCATTERED WINTRY SHOWERS, LOCAL FROST

TOMORROW: MOSTLY DRY AND BRIGHT

DAYS 3-5: LIGHT WINDS, CHANCE OF FROST

DAYS 6-10: MAINLY DRY, BRIGHT. COOL NIGHTS

SUMMARY

Cool and bright today with the chance of a wintry shower. A fresh NW’ly breeze. Clear spells and a few showers tonight. Easing NW’ly winds, falling light across Orkney. The risk of a local grass frost.

Mostly dry and bright on Thursday with lighter NW’ly winds. Though rather cloudy during Friday and the weekend there will be some sunshine. With mainly light winds a touch of ground frost is likely overnight.

Next week perhaps mainly dry and settled but cool. Mostly light or moderate E to NE’ly winds at first, but then increasing fresh.

GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC

Today a moderate to fresh NW to N’ly airflow over the Northern Isles will ease as a depression over the northern Norwegian Sea continues to fill and a ridge of high pressure builds across northeast Scotland from both the northwest.

While Shetland remains in the ‘col’ between two highs a slack low pressure centre developing to the west of Scotland will push a weak front north over Scotland bringing cloudier conditions to Orkney.

The front will be pushed away on Friday as the ridge develops into a small anticyclone over the Northern Isles by the weekend.

Present predictions suggest a broad ridge of high pressure over the area at the start of next week may move slightly further north, resulting in a freshening E to NE’ly airflow over both Orkney and Shetland.

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS

Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.

Temperatures rising to around 8° Celsius by day, falling to between 1° and 3° Celsius overnight.

WEDNESDAY 16^th: A few showers around, wintry over the hills with hail possible at lower levels. Otherwise a cool, bright day with sunny spells. F4-5 N to NW’ly winds. Clear spells and a few showers overnight, these wintry down to lower levels. F4 NW’ly winds, falling F2-3 across Orkney. A touch of ground frost for sheltered inland places.

Sea State: Perhaps rough in the west and around Fair Isle, with a 3 to 4 metre NW’ly wind-swell. Mostly moderate in the east, with a 2 metre NW’ly wind-swell.

THURSDAY 17^th: Mostly dry and bright with variable amounts of cloud giving some sunny periods, the best of these across Shetland with Orkney starting the day rather cloudy but brightening later. Clearer skies and lighter NW’ly winds resulting in a touch of ground frost overnight.

Sea State: Moderate or rough, with a 2 to 3 metre N’ly wind-swell. Perhaps moderate to slight inshore to the east of Orkney, with a 1 to 2 metre N to NE’ly wind-swell.

FRIDAY 18^th: Though rather cloudy skies will become clearer at times to allow some sunshine. With mainly light winds there could be a touch of ground frost where skies remain clear long enough overnight.

Sea State: Moderate or slight, with a 1 to 2 metre N’ly wind-swell, but perhaps NE’ly around Orkney.

10-DAY OUTLOOK

Confidence level: Weather type – medium. Timing – medium/low.

Temperatures perhaps in the daily range around 9° Celsius down to about 4° Celsius.

SATURDAY 19^th: Dry and bright with sunny or clear periods. Cool by day, cold overnight with a grass frost away from coasts. Mainly light E or NE’ly winds.

Sea State: Perhaps mainly slight, with a 1 metre wind-swell, NW or N’ly in Shetland waters and NE’ly around Orkney.

SUNDAY 20^th: Dry and bright with variable amounts of cloud and little or no wind. Cool with the risk of an overnight frost.

Sea State: Perhaps moderate or slight, with a 1 to 2 metre N to NE’ly wind-swell.

MONDAY 21^st - SATURDAY 26^th: The week perhaps mainly dry and settled but cool with the risk of overnight frosts, more so early in the week. Mostly light or moderate E to NE’ly winds at first, but then increasing fresh.

Sea State on Monday: Possibly moderate, with a 2 metre NE’ly wind-swell.