WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ORKNEY
Friday, February 3, at 10.52am

HEADLINES

TODAY: DRY AND BRIGHT, LIGHT WINDS

TONIGHT: DRY, FROSTY AT FIRST

TOMORROW: RAIN AT TIMES AS GALES DEVELOP

DAYS 3-5: DRIER AND BRIGHTER, EASING WIND

DAYS 6-10: RAIN AND WIND, THEN DRIER AND BRIGHTER

SUMMARY

Dry, bright and cool today, though rather cloudy at times. Light W’ly winds becoming S’ly. Staying dry through this evening with a frost at first, but this possibly lifting later in the night as cloud thickens and S’ly winds freshen.

S’ly gales developing by Saturday with outbreaks of rain through much of the day, clearing during the evening as winds ease and veer SW to W’ly.

Bright with showers and moderate or SW to W’ly winds on Sunday. A milder, cloudy day on Monday with outbreaks of light rain and moderate SW’ly winds. Rain at times on Tuesday and Wednesday with strong S to SE’ly winds.

The remainder of next week rather cloudy with some showers or a little rain. Mild at first, but perhaps cooler later as mainly fresh to strong SW’ly winds turn W’ly to NW’ly.

GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC

A ridge of high pressure over the UK, extending southwest from an intense anticyclone over northwest Russia, will weaken and slip south today. As it does so a milder S to SW’ly Atlantic airflow will develop across western and northern Scotland, this becoming strong by Saturday, ahead of Atlantic fronts driven east by a depression near Iceland. As fronts clear a lighter SW to W’ly airflow will follow for Sunday.

During the course of next week an anticyclone, forecast to develop to the southwest of the British Isles, is likely to maintain a SW’ly airflow over northern Scotland. This may become a cooler W to NW’ly later, as the high is predicted to migrate northwards close to – or over – the British Isles.

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS

Confidence level: Weather type – medium. Timing – medium.

Temperatures today 4° or 5° Celsius, down to 2° or 3° this evening. On Saturday and Sunday temperatures ranging from a high of 7° to a low of 4° Celsius.

FRIDAY 3^rd: Starting cold with little wind, then another dry, bright and cool day with some sunny or clear spells, though the best of these are more likely to the south of Fair Isle. A S’ly breeze developing later. A fine start to the evening, with a touch of grass frost. This will then lift as S’ly winds freshen F5 and cloud thickens.

Sea State: Becoming moderate to rough overnight, with a 2 to 3 metre S to SW’ly wind-swell.

SATURDAY 4^th: Rain, perhaps preceded by sleet or wet snow, arriving soon after dawn with outbreaks of occasionally heavy rain continuing through much of the day. F6-7 S’ly winds increasing gale F8 at times. The rain should clear Orkney during the evening as F6-7 S’ly winds ease F4-5 and veer SW to W’ly.

Sea State: Perhaps rough, with a 3 to 4 metre S to SW’ly wind-swell turning W or NW’ly later.

SUNDAY 5^th: The rain clearing Shetland overnight to leave a mostly dry and bright day with sunny or clear spells and scattered showers. F5-6 W to NW’ly winds easing F4-5 later.

Sea State: Perhaps rough, with a 3 to 4 metre W’ly wind-swell.

10-DAY OUTLOOK

Confidence level: Weather type – low. Timing – low.

Milder, with temperatures in the daily range around 7° or 8° Celsius by day, falling to 4° or 5° Celsius overnight. Possibly cooler later.

MONDAY 6^th: A mainly dry, bright day. Moderate W’ly winds falling light before later freshening S’ly as cloud thickens.

Sea State: Perhaps moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre SW’ly wind-swell.

TUESDAY 7^th: Cloudy with outbreaks of rain and a fresh to strong S to SE’ly wind.

Sea State: Perhaps mainly rough, with a 3 to 4 metre S’ly wind-swell.

WEDNESDAY 8^th – MONDAY 13^th: Rather cloudy and mild at first with rain, heavy at times and accompanied by a S’ly gale on Wednesday. The rain then clearing to showers and strong SW’ly winds. Becoming brighter and mainly dry later. Possibly turning cooler, as easing winds veer W’ly or NW’ly.

Sea State on Wednesday: Possibly rough or very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre S’ly wind-swell.