Updated: Saturday, March 8, at 2.57pm
TODAY: Rain clearing north. Gales.
TONIGHT: Drier with gales moderating.
TOMORROW: Bright with showers. Windy.
DAYS 3-5: Bright with scattered showers. Breezy.
DAYS 6-10: Perhaps drier and brighter with lighter winds for a time.
Rain across the Northern Isles clearing northwards, followed by drier, brighter conditions. S’ly winds will remain strong to gale. This evening staying mainly dry until around midnight when a band of showers will cross from the west. Strong to gale S’ly winds veering SW’ly, with clear spells and the odd light shower for the rest of the night.
A bright day on Sunday with fresh to strong SW to W’ly winds. Scattered showers becoming more frequent later. Strong to gale SW’ly winds.
Some early showers on Monday, then mostly dry and bright with strong W’ly winds becoming moderate SW’ly. Much of Tuesday dry and bright with S to SW’ly winds increasing fresh to strong later with some overnight rain.
Wednesday rather cloudy with some drizzle and moderate to fresh SW’ly winds. The next day or so mostly dry though rather cloudy with moderate or fresh SW’ly winds later backing strong S’ly bringing rain late Friday. The weekend and start of the following week possibly windy with rain or showers.
GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC
A deep depression south of Iceland will drive its frontal system northeast across the Northern Isles today. A strong to gale-force S’ly airflow will veer SW’ly this evening behind the cold front.
As the filling low continues northeast past Iceland and pressure builds across the UK, a strong SW’ly airflow is likely to be maintained in the north during the next 24-48 hours.
The SW’ly airflow is expected to slacken during the first part of next week as an extension of the Azores anticyclone transfers northeast over the south of the UK.
The high is forecast to drift away into the Continent later next week. As it does so low pressure, moving through the Iceland region, may well bring a strengthening and unsettled SW’ly airflow over northern Scotland for next weekend and start of the following week.
FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.
Milder today with temperatures rising to 8° or 9° Celsius before falling to 6° Celsius tonight. Cooler on Sunday and Monday with temperatures 7° or 8° Celsius by day and about 4° Celsius overnight.
SATURDAY 8th: A band of heavy rain moving north across the Northern Isles in the morning will be followed by a gradual improvement to drier, brighter conditions during the afternoon, perhaps some late sunshine. S’ly winds will remain F6 to gale F8, locally severe gale F9 at first. Cool at first, the day will end noticeably milder. This evening staying mainly dry with some clear spells but then clouding over with a band of showery rain crossing the area around midnight. F6 to gale F8 S’ly winds then veering SW’ly with clear spells and just the odd light shower during the remainder of the night.
Sea State: Rough or very rough, with a 3 to 5 metre S to SW’ly wind-swell.
SUNDAY 9th: A bright day with sunny periods and F5-6 SW to W’ly winds. A few scattered showers at first, these becoming more frequent later and perhaps merging into a period of rain overnight. F6-7 SW’ly winds, locally touching gale F8 at times.
Sea State: Rough to very rough, with a 3 to 6 metre SW to W’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.
MONDAY 10th: Some early showers, then mostly dry and bright with some sunny spells. F6-7 W’ly winds becoming F4 SW’ly.
Sea State: Rough to very rough becoming moderate to rough, with a 3 to 5 metre W’ly wind-swell decaying 2 to 4 metres and turning SW’ly. Highest in the west.
Confidence level: Weather type – medium/low. Timing – low.
Temperatures in the daily range about 8° Celsius down to around 4° Celsius.
TUESDAY 11th: Much of the day dry and bright but clouding over later as S to SW’ly winds increase fresh to strong, bringing some mostly light rain overnight, more especially for Shetland.
Sea State: Perhaps moderate to rough, with a 2 to 4 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.
WEDNESDAY 12th: Rather cloudy with some patchy light rain and moderate to fresh SW’ly winds.
Sea State: Possibly moderate to rough, with a 2 to 4 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.
THURSDAY 13th – TUESDAY 18th: The week ending mostly dry with moderate or fresh SW’ly winds and rather cloudy conditions. Winds then backing S’ly and strengthening bringing rain late on Friday. The weekend and start of the following week possibly windy with rain or showers.
Sea State: Possibly moderate to rough, with a 2 to 3 metre SW’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.